Tottenham vs Man Utd — Premier League data preview

Tottenham return to north London with a point to prove after a bruising 0:1 home defeat where they were out-shot on target 1:9 and out-xG’d 0.05:2.92. Man Utd arrive in goal-scoring form (2:2, 4:2, 2:1 in their last three) and have been clinical even when they cede territory. It sets up a classic contrast: Spurs’ recent home falter versus United’s punchy attack on the road.

Predictions and Analysis

• 🏆 Match Outcome Prediction: Man Utd’s attacking trend looks more reliable. Spurs have lost three of their last four at home (0:1, 1:2, 1:1, 0:1) with very low home xG figures (0.19, 0.88, 0.75, 0.05 in those matches). United, meanwhile, have scored in four of their last five away and come off a 2:2 away draw with 59% possession and 7 shots on target. The visitors’ xGOT spikes (e.g., 3.05 vs 51, 2.08 vs 746) underline a clinical edge.
• ⚽ Goals & Scoreline Prediction: Over 2.5 goals, leaning 1–2. United away games frequently open up (conceded 2.0+ xG in multiple trips: 2.75 at 40, 2.52 at 50, 2.0 at 65), while they still create 1.3–2.0 xG away themselves. Spurs’ home chance creation has dipped, but they still produce box entries and set-pieces, enough to nick one in a high-variance game where United’s attack does the heavier lifting.
• 🚩 Corners Prediction: Over 9.5. Spurs’ matches are corner-rich: 10–9 vs 39, 6–6 vs 66, 6–5 vs 49, and a huge 9–8 at 45 away, showing a pattern of frequent wide attacks. United away totals also trend high (13 at 65, 13 at 40, 15 at 36). Expect double-figure corners driven by Spurs’ crossing volume and United’s counter-led transitions leading to blocks.
• 🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction: Over 4.5. Referee Barrott S. is trending card-heavy (5.4 yellows per match in 2025; 4.78 in 2024). Spurs often rack up bookings (e.g., 4 vs 49, 3 vs 63, 3 vs 39, 4 vs 50), and United regularly collect 1–2 with spikes to 4. With both sides engaging in high tackle counts and transition fouls, the threshold looks reachable.

Summary: United’s recent goal threat and Spurs’ home xG slump tilt this toward the visitors in a lively contest. Best angles: Man Utd to win, Over 2.5 goals, Over 9.5 corners, and Over 4.5 cards. Confidence highest on cards and corners given the referee profile and sustained set-piece volumes.